Since my posting 06/Nov below, everything was on track. MStar was IPO on TWSE on 24/DEC. Hotung share price also increases substantially from USD0.105 to close at USD0.140 on 28/DEC, a 33% rise in less than 2 months.
What is even more spectacular is the volume activity.
The two shareholders are rushing towards each destination, directly opposite each other. The major shareholder, Tai Lung Capital, has bought a few % of share in past one week, whereas another substantial shareholder Third Avenue has also sold a few %.
However, the volume today is 158M share, representing around 14% of Hotung share.
Who is the buyer?? It can't be Tai Lung or any other existing substantial shareholders since no announcement is made. What's the buyer strategy here? How can such high volume purchased without creating a substantial shareholder?
Who is the seller?? It can't be Third Avenue, as it only owns 68M shares as of 23/DEC. Could it be short-seller? Who is behind the scene? Why they want to keep the price at USD0.140?
Any one has seen this type of activity before? Pls share your experience with us.
I hope we can see things clear up soon. And of course more importantly, the price continue to rise.
Showing posts with label Hotung Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hotung Investment. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Invest in MStar before IPO through Hotung Investment
Ok, now I would like to share a way to invest in MStar before its IPO through a SGX proxy, ie Hotung Investment.
Before I proceed, I would like to declare that I have invested in Hotung. And below is my opinion based on my understanding and certain assumption. Please make your own study before making any decision. Of course I welcome your questions or comment here.
Hotung has 2 key business groups, (1) venture capital investment, and (2) fund management. Now, Hotung owns about NT$668 million as valued end of 2009.
I would not go into the detail analysis of Hotung valuation analysis, rather I will use a quite conservative way to evaluate Hotung as an effective proxy of a high potential company, MStar.
If you look at the table below, Hotung today owns about USD$0.084 of cash, and USD$0.020 of MStar share. The USD$0.020 was the valuation end of Dec 2009. In other words, Hotung is worth $0.104 just based on cash and MStar shareholding. Well, you may ask, if MStar is not IPO yet, how sure are we on the MStar worth? My take is this:
a) the valuation is based on end 2009, and since then the semiconductor (in which MStar resides) has grown tremendously
b) Hotung knows that MStar is going to IPO this year, therefore the fair value estimate should not be too far off
The share price of Hotung as of last trading day 04/Nov/2010 was USD$0.105. Can you see the significance? It means that your investment in Hotung is fully accountable by just cash and MStar shareholding!
What makes it even more attrative is this:
1) Don't forget Hotung still has a fund management business
2) Hotung still has shareholding in more than 170 companies, estimate worth around USD$0.12. Assuming 50% of them fail, and the rest just retain their value without growth, they would still worht USD$0.06, thus bring the value of Hotung share to $0.165, more than 50% growth from current price.
Before I proceed, I would like to declare that I have invested in Hotung. And below is my opinion based on my understanding and certain assumption. Please make your own study before making any decision. Of course I welcome your questions or comment here.
Hotung has 2 key business groups, (1) venture capital investment, and (2) fund management. Now, Hotung owns about NT$668 million as valued end of 2009.
I would not go into the detail analysis of Hotung valuation analysis, rather I will use a quite conservative way to evaluate Hotung as an effective proxy of a high potential company, MStar.
If you look at the table below, Hotung today owns about USD$0.084 of cash, and USD$0.020 of MStar share. The USD$0.020 was the valuation end of Dec 2009. In other words, Hotung is worth $0.104 just based on cash and MStar shareholding. Well, you may ask, if MStar is not IPO yet, how sure are we on the MStar worth? My take is this:
a) the valuation is based on end 2009, and since then the semiconductor (in which MStar resides) has grown tremendously
b) Hotung knows that MStar is going to IPO this year, therefore the fair value estimate should not be too far off
The share price of Hotung as of last trading day 04/Nov/2010 was USD$0.105. Can you see the significance? It means that your investment in Hotung is fully accountable by just cash and MStar shareholding!
What makes it even more attrative is this:
1) Don't forget Hotung still has a fund management business
2) Hotung still has shareholding in more than 170 companies, estimate worth around USD$0.12. Assuming 50% of them fail, and the rest just retain their value without growth, they would still worht USD$0.06, thus bring the value of Hotung share to $0.165, more than 50% growth from current price.
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