Let's start with some history ...
More than two thousand years ago, Qin Shi Huang unified China, and became the first emperor of China. In between 213 to 206 BCE, he ordered burning of books, except those from his chancellor Li Si's school of thoughts. Hundreds of scholars were also buried alive. This incident is probably one of the earliest illustrations of how important it is to manage and control information and knowledge.
Now come back to 2009. Google Inc has a wonderful idea to scan and digitize books around the world to build a e-library online. This is exactly the opposite of what Qin Shi Huang did. In my opinion, this project matches that of Qin Shi Huang in terms of its scale and impact to the world, of course more towards the benefit of mankind in this case. Could you imagine any books at your fingertips? Could you imagine all knowledge being properly stored and managed generation after generation?
But of course, Google is still a profit-seeking entity, it does this for its own benefit. Just imagine when reading a book, all sorts of Google advertisements related to the content line up readily for you. That must be a cash cow for Google.
There are still a lot of legal and copyright issue to be addressed for the project to be successful. As a consumer, I wish Google all the best.
Showing posts with label Mycroeconomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mycroeconomics. Show all posts
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Right issue - What you see is not what you get
In some restaurants, live fish or crabs are displayed. Customers can pick the ones they like. The staff will weigh the live seafood in front of you, quote you a price, before sending it to the kitchen. Everything seems reasonable and fair. But have you ever wonder what happens in the kitchen? I heard that some unscrupulous restaurants would replace your chosen one with a frozen one. Of course, the frozen one is far cheaper than the live one. In other words, you are charged at the 'live' price, but actually what you get is the 'frozen' one.
Now come back to the investment world. Recently there are quite a number of companies issuing rights to raise cash. While each of them has their own reasons and merits, what puzzles me is the way that they promote the rights. They all claim to provide the shareholders 'an opportunity to subscribe for new shares at a discount'. Now the question is, is the per share value the same before and after the right issue? The share value will be diluted with the right issue! While you get the new share at a lower price, the value of your existing shares will be eroded.
The values are no longer the same, so how can you claim that there is a discount of the right share price as benchmark to current price? Isn't this an outright misrepresentation?
It somehow reminds me of the restaurants' trick, what you see is not what you get. Unfortunately in this case, the authority does not seem to be concerned of this misrepresentation.
** Quote from Genting Singapore's press release **
The Rights Issue will provide Genting shareholders with an opportunity to subscribe for new shares at a discount of 32.8 per cent to the closing price of S$1.19 yesterday.
Full press release here http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_EA9853457589A4744825762D00138631/$file/GSPLC_PressRelease.pdf?openelement
Now come back to the investment world. Recently there are quite a number of companies issuing rights to raise cash. While each of them has their own reasons and merits, what puzzles me is the way that they promote the rights. They all claim to provide the shareholders 'an opportunity to subscribe for new shares at a discount'. Now the question is, is the per share value the same before and after the right issue? The share value will be diluted with the right issue! While you get the new share at a lower price, the value of your existing shares will be eroded.
The values are no longer the same, so how can you claim that there is a discount of the right share price as benchmark to current price? Isn't this an outright misrepresentation?
It somehow reminds me of the restaurants' trick, what you see is not what you get. Unfortunately in this case, the authority does not seem to be concerned of this misrepresentation.
** Quote from Genting Singapore's press release **
The Rights Issue will provide Genting shareholders with an opportunity to subscribe for new shares at a discount of 32.8 per cent to the closing price of S$1.19 yesterday.
Full press release here http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_EA9853457589A4744825762D00138631/$file/GSPLC_PressRelease.pdf?openelement
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Nonconsequentialist Reasoning
I am reading the book 'Irrational Exuberance' by Robert J. Shiller, and come across this interesting term 'Nonconsequentialist Reasoning', originated by psychologists Shafir and Tversky. I quoted the description here, people cannot decide until the events actually occur.
I believe this psychological effect is experienced by many investors. In fact, in my blog, I have recorded at 2 such events.
One was when FSL reduced its distribution, and the price held up for several days before going south. The investors could not decide until they see the next distribution in sight is reduced. On the other hand, when Rickmers cut its distribution immediately, you see that the price went south immediately.
The other one is on Chartered Semiconductor. With the latest player Globalfoundries into the competition space, bloodbathing is logically expected. But the investors seems like cannot decide what to do, they may want to wait till they see blood.
On a bigger picture, I think this also explains why Technical Analysis is working in many cases. If market is efficient, and any information is digested immediately and fully reflected on the price, there is no way TA will work.
So, as an investor, we must remind ourselves to make rational decision ... timely.
I believe this psychological effect is experienced by many investors. In fact, in my blog, I have recorded at 2 such events.
One was when FSL reduced its distribution, and the price held up for several days before going south. The investors could not decide until they see the next distribution in sight is reduced. On the other hand, when Rickmers cut its distribution immediately, you see that the price went south immediately.
The other one is on Chartered Semiconductor. With the latest player Globalfoundries into the competition space, bloodbathing is logically expected. But the investors seems like cannot decide what to do, they may want to wait till they see blood.
On a bigger picture, I think this also explains why Technical Analysis is working in many cases. If market is efficient, and any information is digested immediately and fully reflected on the price, there is no way TA will work.
So, as an investor, we must remind ourselves to make rational decision ... timely.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
DBS - Apparent Mistake
First of all, let's be clear, I am neither pro nor anti DBS. In fact, I think investors should bear some risks and responsibility in making any investment decision.
However, the way the lawyer representing DBS defended the case amused me a lot. In essence, the lawyer argued that, as there was such an apparent error in the document, anyone who read it carefully would detect it, and therefore 'turn on its head'.
My first intuitive questions are:
1) If the error is so apparent, shouldn't DBS employees, who sold the products, detected it when they went through the document with the investors?
2) And if they detected it, why didn't they inform DBS to correct it?
3) Or did they go through the document with the customers at all? If they didn't, isn't this the best evidence of mis-selling?
There is mistake, but it is not so apparent to me who made the mistake.
** Partial quote **
An obvious clerical error, says DBS of "credit event" calculation
By Cheow Xin Yi, TODAY | Posted: 01 September 2009 0633 hrs
SINGAPORE: There was an error in the formula that investors were told would be used to calculate any remaining value in their investments should there be a "credit event".
But, DBS Bank is arguing, this was such "an obvious clerical mistake", that it would be apparent to any investor who had read his or her documents thoroughly.
The bank responded on Thursday to a suit by more than 200 investors who had bought into the now-worthless Lehman-linked DBS High Notes 5 (HN5).
More on
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1002036/1/.html
However, the way the lawyer representing DBS defended the case amused me a lot. In essence, the lawyer argued that, as there was such an apparent error in the document, anyone who read it carefully would detect it, and therefore 'turn on its head'.
My first intuitive questions are:
1) If the error is so apparent, shouldn't DBS employees, who sold the products, detected it when they went through the document with the investors?
2) And if they detected it, why didn't they inform DBS to correct it?
3) Or did they go through the document with the customers at all? If they didn't, isn't this the best evidence of mis-selling?
There is mistake, but it is not so apparent to me who made the mistake.
** Partial quote **
An obvious clerical error, says DBS of "credit event" calculation
By Cheow Xin Yi, TODAY | Posted: 01 September 2009 0633 hrs
SINGAPORE: There was an error in the formula that investors were told would be used to calculate any remaining value in their investments should there be a "credit event".
But, DBS Bank is arguing, this was such "an obvious clerical mistake", that it would be apparent to any investor who had read his or her documents thoroughly.
The bank responded on Thursday to a suit by more than 200 investors who had bought into the now-worthless Lehman-linked DBS High Notes 5 (HN5).
More on
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1002036/1/.html
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Watch out, negative interest rate may be a reality
I think this news did not get the exposure it deserved here. Swedish Riksbank has introduced negative interest rate on bank deposit, a world first. Bankers around are watching and monitoring this closely.
The motivation of the Swedish bank is to force liquidity. Apparently many banks still do not want to lend out the money. This is quite different from the impression we have seen in Singapore, where money seems like flowing fearlessly, both in stock market and property market.
However, if the move is proven working, I believe many bankers would be ready to be a copycat, as reported in the article.
What would the impact to depositors? A negative interest would mean that you pay the bank to help keep the money. In other words, the time value of money becomes negative. Will it encourage immediate spending and booast credit growth? Will it bring inflation? Or will it be time that we keep money in MILO tin?
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/08/27/sweden.subzero.interest.ft/index.html
** Partial extract **
Bankers watch as Swedish interest rates goes subzero
August 28, 2009 -- Updated 0352 GMT (1152 HKT)
For a world first, the announcement came with remarkably little fanfare.
But last month, the Swedish Riksbank entered uncharted territory when it became the world's first central bank to introduce negative interest rates on bank deposits.
Even at the deepest point of Japan's financial crisis, the country's central bank shied away from such a measure, which is designed to encourage commercial banks to boost lending.
The motivation of the Swedish bank is to force liquidity. Apparently many banks still do not want to lend out the money. This is quite different from the impression we have seen in Singapore, where money seems like flowing fearlessly, both in stock market and property market.
However, if the move is proven working, I believe many bankers would be ready to be a copycat, as reported in the article.
What would the impact to depositors? A negative interest would mean that you pay the bank to help keep the money. In other words, the time value of money becomes negative. Will it encourage immediate spending and booast credit growth? Will it bring inflation? Or will it be time that we keep money in MILO tin?
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/08/27/sweden.subzero.interest.ft/index.html
** Partial extract **
Bankers watch as Swedish interest rates goes subzero
August 28, 2009 -- Updated 0352 GMT (1152 HKT)
For a world first, the announcement came with remarkably little fanfare.
But last month, the Swedish Riksbank entered uncharted territory when it became the world's first central bank to introduce negative interest rates on bank deposits.
Even at the deepest point of Japan's financial crisis, the country's central bank shied away from such a measure, which is designed to encourage commercial banks to boost lending.
Friday, August 28, 2009
NTU research on insurance
I read with interest on The Straits Times article that said NTU Associate Professor David Yee research showed that Singaporeans are grossly under-insured. I felt that the article did not come with sufficient details and data to support the claim, so I went to NTU website and did a search there. What I found was simply the Straits Times article again (NTU website: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/CorpComms2/Documents/2009/Aug/ST_090821_B22_Sporeans%20grossly%20under-insured.pdf).
So I will make my comment on the article itself.
As a University report, I would expect that AP David Yee at least told us how he conducted the research, what are the underlying assumptions? How many people did he survey? How did he reach a conclusion that average Singaporean needs $495k insurance? What is the purpose of the research and who fund it?
Don't get me wrong, I think insurance is important. But without looking at individual needs and their actual situations and wealth portfolio, a blanket statement that $495k is needed is highly questionable. I am puzzled how the University allowed such under-research report be published? And worst still, put it on its website.
I suspect by now, most insurance agents in Singapore would already put that article in their briefcase ...
So I will make my comment on the article itself.
As a University report, I would expect that AP David Yee at least told us how he conducted the research, what are the underlying assumptions? How many people did he survey? How did he reach a conclusion that average Singaporean needs $495k insurance? What is the purpose of the research and who fund it?
Don't get me wrong, I think insurance is important. But without looking at individual needs and their actual situations and wealth portfolio, a blanket statement that $495k is needed is highly questionable. I am puzzled how the University allowed such under-research report be published? And worst still, put it on its website.
I suspect by now, most insurance agents in Singapore would already put that article in their briefcase ...
Pizza Hut pasta, anyone?
You must have watched the latest Pizza Hut advertisement. It is about a group of 80 diners tasting Pizza Hut pasta, without knowing it's from Pizza Hut. Many of them gave comments like, 'it is authentic', 'taste like that from xxx restaurant', etc.
Well, it is really a good idea by Pizza Hut to prove that their pasta is as good as any others, including those priced a few times higher.
Normally we would say that, well rental is a big part of the cost, so if you eat at a high class restaurant, obviously a big percentage of the price is towards paying the rental.
Let's look at it from demand side, and from a financial perspective. I believe many of us are aware of the term 'time value of money'. Basically what it means is that as money travels along the dimension of time, its value increases. In layman terms, money got to earn interest.
Now, think about it, what about 'money value of time'. As time travels across the dimension of money, does its value change? Put simply, at a particular point of time, does money change the value of that moment? Imagine you are in a romantic (and expensive) restaurant, would spending $30 for a plate of pasta makes you happy (value to you)? Or you rather just drink plain water and go for a $6 Pizza Hut pasta (proven just as tasty) later?
Well, it is really a good idea by Pizza Hut to prove that their pasta is as good as any others, including those priced a few times higher.
Normally we would say that, well rental is a big part of the cost, so if you eat at a high class restaurant, obviously a big percentage of the price is towards paying the rental.
Let's look at it from demand side, and from a financial perspective. I believe many of us are aware of the term 'time value of money'. Basically what it means is that as money travels along the dimension of time, its value increases. In layman terms, money got to earn interest.
Now, think about it, what about 'money value of time'. As time travels across the dimension of money, does its value change? Put simply, at a particular point of time, does money change the value of that moment? Imagine you are in a romantic (and expensive) restaurant, would spending $30 for a plate of pasta makes you happy (value to you)? Or you rather just drink plain water and go for a $6 Pizza Hut pasta (proven just as tasty) later?
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Acceptance of cash offer through ATM?
The acceptance level of SPC shareholders to the cash offer by China National Petroleum has exceeded 90%, so a delisting is unavoidable. I have therefore decided to accept their offer. Quite a pity, I thought, it was bought for the dividend. At the price I bought, the trailing yield is about 7%.
So I have to fill up the pink form and mail it out, it has to be received no later than 28/Aug. I am wondering, why can't the acceptance be performed through ATM? Afterall, we have IPO, right subscription, EPS done through ATM. The advantage is fast and reliable. Well, I don't mind they charge me $1 or $2 for this. What do you think?
So I have to fill up the pink form and mail it out, it has to be received no later than 28/Aug. I am wondering, why can't the acceptance be performed through ATM? Afterall, we have IPO, right subscription, EPS done through ATM. The advantage is fast and reliable. Well, I don't mind they charge me $1 or $2 for this. What do you think?
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Gold rush over?
Gold is viewed as a safe haven. Thus, it is interesting to see how gold behave in the past few quarters, when market fell off the cliff.
In the chart below, I plotted the worldwide identifiable gold demand from Q108 till Q209 in USD. They are jewelry, industrial & dental, and identifiable investment. In addition, I plotted gold price over the same period.
First we look at jewelry (yes, it is the gold chains, rings, etc, that ladies like). It maybe a surprise to many, but jewelry is actually the largest demand for gold. We see that jewelry demand peaked at Q308 and fell in Q408 and Q109. Since gold is a safe haven, I would thought that it should be in greater demand in Q408 and Q109 when market uncertainty was at its highest point. Apparently this is not the case.
However, if we look at identifiable investment, it shows a pick up over Q408 to Q109. Comparing this observation with that from jewelry, I would think that source of demand probably play a part. Comparing to the general retail jewelry buyers, gold investors are probably more sophiscated, more concern of uncertainty, and have more resources to satisfy its own demand.
Finally, we see that industrial and dental demand basically follows the trend of economy pretty well, bottom at Q408 and Q109 period.
In a bigger picture, we can see that the total gold demand starts to fall in Q209 to pre-crisis level in Q208. Is this an indication that market has shrugged off concerns over uncertainty? Maybe. But one thing strange is that the price did not correlate well with demand.
Is the gold rush over by now and market stability returns? Will the trillions dollar rescue packages lead to hyper inflation? It is difficult to draw conclusion now, but gold trend is certainly telling a lot of stories.
In the chart below, I plotted the worldwide identifiable gold demand from Q108 till Q209 in USD. They are jewelry, industrial & dental, and identifiable investment. In addition, I plotted gold price over the same period.
First we look at jewelry (yes, it is the gold chains, rings, etc, that ladies like). It maybe a surprise to many, but jewelry is actually the largest demand for gold. We see that jewelry demand peaked at Q308 and fell in Q408 and Q109. Since gold is a safe haven, I would thought that it should be in greater demand in Q408 and Q109 when market uncertainty was at its highest point. Apparently this is not the case.
However, if we look at identifiable investment, it shows a pick up over Q408 to Q109. Comparing this observation with that from jewelry, I would think that source of demand probably play a part. Comparing to the general retail jewelry buyers, gold investors are probably more sophiscated, more concern of uncertainty, and have more resources to satisfy its own demand.
Finally, we see that industrial and dental demand basically follows the trend of economy pretty well, bottom at Q408 and Q109 period.
In a bigger picture, we can see that the total gold demand starts to fall in Q209 to pre-crisis level in Q208. Is this an indication that market has shrugged off concerns over uncertainty? Maybe. But one thing strange is that the price did not correlate well with demand.
Is the gold rush over by now and market stability returns? Will the trillions dollar rescue packages lead to hyper inflation? It is difficult to draw conclusion now, but gold trend is certainly telling a lot of stories.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Rickmers - why the ship has not arrived?
I wonder why Rickmers results announcement this quarter Q4, 2009 is so late.
To begin with, Rickmers is not running some complicated business. Just collect the lease fee every month right? At least that's what the CEO told us. If so, why need such a long time to know how much they earn?
And indeed it is long, even by its own record. If you compared the announcement record since 2008, this is the longest it takes, 45 days into a new quarter. Q2 last year, it takes only 36 days.
I can't help but suspect that something big is coming. I have no idea what it is. But if Rickmers delays the results announcement for it, it must have something to do with the DPU. Otherwise, Rickmers could always announce it separately.
For now, we are just waiting for the ship to arrive ... but what's on the ship is a question mark.
QuarterxxxxxxAnnounced on......Days into new quarter
Q2,2009xxxxxAug 14.................45
Q1,2009xxxxxApr 24..................24
Q4,2008xxxxxFeb 09.................40
Q3,2008xxxxxOct 31..................31
Q2,2008xxxxxAug 05.................36
Q1,2008xxxxxMay 05.................35
To begin with, Rickmers is not running some complicated business. Just collect the lease fee every month right? At least that's what the CEO told us. If so, why need such a long time to know how much they earn?
And indeed it is long, even by its own record. If you compared the announcement record since 2008, this is the longest it takes, 45 days into a new quarter. Q2 last year, it takes only 36 days.
I can't help but suspect that something big is coming. I have no idea what it is. But if Rickmers delays the results announcement for it, it must have something to do with the DPU. Otherwise, Rickmers could always announce it separately.
For now, we are just waiting for the ship to arrive ... but what's on the ship is a question mark.
QuarterxxxxxxAnnounced on......Days into new quarter
Q2,2009xxxxxAug 14.................45
Q1,2009xxxxxApr 24..................24
Q4,2008xxxxxFeb 09.................40
Q3,2008xxxxxOct 31..................31
Q2,2008xxxxxAug 05.................36
Q1,2008xxxxxMay 05.................35
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Readers Digested
I believe many of you have receive this invitation from Reader's Digest before. What surprises me is that they actually work with UOB this time. The letter is addressed to UOB credit cardmember.
All along I cannot understand why RD could run this program for so long. To me, it certainly looks like a form of gambling. In fact, RD themselves called it Sweepstakes.
To be fair, RD makes it a little bit different from normal form of gambling. Normally you just place the bet (in casino, 4D, Toto, etc) and wait for the results.
For RD, they make full use of every single step.
- For the prize money, it is authorized by the Finance Director. WOW!
- To receive the this notification, you are very lucky. WOW!
- Then you must make a very important decision, whether to take part or not. WOW!
- You need to reply early, because IF you win the top prize, you will receive a bigger prize. WOW!
- And if you subscribe to RD, you will win a bigger prize (IF you win the top prize). WOW!
- And you also must decide how you want to receive the prize. WOW!
By now, most of the readers should feel they have got much closer to the prize.
Well, yes, you don't really lose even if you don't win anything, except the money spent on subscribing the magazine. Just remember to terminate the subscription before expiry, otherwise they will continue to send you the magazine and of course the bill ... make sure your money is not digested ...
All along I cannot understand why RD could run this program for so long. To me, it certainly looks like a form of gambling. In fact, RD themselves called it Sweepstakes.
To be fair, RD makes it a little bit different from normal form of gambling. Normally you just place the bet (in casino, 4D, Toto, etc) and wait for the results.
For RD, they make full use of every single step.
- For the prize money, it is authorized by the Finance Director. WOW!
- To receive the this notification, you are very lucky. WOW!
- Then you must make a very important decision, whether to take part or not. WOW!
- You need to reply early, because IF you win the top prize, you will receive a bigger prize. WOW!
- And if you subscribe to RD, you will win a bigger prize (IF you win the top prize). WOW!
- And you also must decide how you want to receive the prize. WOW!
By now, most of the readers should feel they have got much closer to the prize.
Well, yes, you don't really lose even if you don't win anything, except the money spent on subscribing the magazine. Just remember to terminate the subscription before expiry, otherwise they will continue to send you the magazine and of course the bill ... make sure your money is not digested ...
Sunday, August 9, 2009
TSMC seeing danger
As I posted before, the presence of Glabalfoundries is a big threat to existing players in the market. (More details here http://mycroeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/07/if-you-are-shareholders-of-chartered.html)
In an investor conference call 30/July/2009, TSMC Chairman and CEO said that "We consider GF to be a formidable competitor. I really think that the battle will be a high casualty one. My job is to minimize the casualties on my side. Casualties will be represented by money."
Morris is a veteran in the industry, and I really respect him for his foresight, sharpness, openness to investors and readiness to fight the war.
Unfortunately here in Chartered, we see no such urgency. It is funny, considering that the most competitive, the strongest, and the healthest company in the industry is seeing danger. The company takes no effort to educate investors on imminent crisis. And the investors are probably still indulged in the recent bull run.
Time is not on your side.
In an investor conference call 30/July/2009, TSMC Chairman and CEO said that "We consider GF to be a formidable competitor. I really think that the battle will be a high casualty one. My job is to minimize the casualties on my side. Casualties will be represented by money."
Morris is a veteran in the industry, and I really respect him for his foresight, sharpness, openness to investors and readiness to fight the war.
Unfortunately here in Chartered, we see no such urgency. It is funny, considering that the most competitive, the strongest, and the healthest company in the industry is seeing danger. The company takes no effort to educate investors on imminent crisis. And the investors are probably still indulged in the recent bull run.
Time is not on your side.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Sports in shopping mall
I have not had the chance to visit the newly opened Ion Orchard yet.
Instead I went to JB last weekend. I was in its largest shopping mall, City Square, where I came across this most creative activity conducted in a shopping mall I have ever seen.
They had a volley ball competition in the shopping mall. For safety sake, they have nets covered up the place. And audience could watch the matches from almost 360 degree from near distance. It was a different experience compared to watching it in a stadium.
I think it was a smart move. The organizer of the match certainly had drawn a big crowd, and if their intent was to promote the sports, what other better ways? For the shopping mall, it gave the patrons a fresh experience other than the normal sales or food fair.
By the way I understand that GIC has a share in this shopping mall. Not sure if they participate in the management. But City Square is clearly a very successful mall in JB, and better than some of Singapore ones.
Instead I went to JB last weekend. I was in its largest shopping mall, City Square, where I came across this most creative activity conducted in a shopping mall I have ever seen.
They had a volley ball competition in the shopping mall. For safety sake, they have nets covered up the place. And audience could watch the matches from almost 360 degree from near distance. It was a different experience compared to watching it in a stadium.
I think it was a smart move. The organizer of the match certainly had drawn a big crowd, and if their intent was to promote the sports, what other better ways? For the shopping mall, it gave the patrons a fresh experience other than the normal sales or food fair.
By the way I understand that GIC has a share in this shopping mall. Not sure if they participate in the management. But City Square is clearly a very successful mall in JB, and better than some of Singapore ones.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Pay peanut and get monkey
This is a 1980 stamp issued by China, the first one in China Zodiac series. I bought 2 pieces at about $10 each in 1986. Three years ago, I sold one of them at around $500. That's a return of 50 times or 5000% in 20 year, equivalent to 21.6% compounded annual return. I think not many investments could beat this. I check eBay that current bidding goes as high as US600. A little regret to have sold one. But then again, I still have one more :)
On hind sight, this is obviously a very good investment. Had I threw in $10,000 to buy 1,000 pieces at that time, I would have US600,000 now! But then, actually it is very difficult to identify winners in stamp collection. More so nowadays, as the quantity issue is so large now. I was told that this particular monkey can fetch such a high price because a lot of them were scrapped due poor printing technology at that time. And I think it certainly benefits from the growing purchase power of Chinese stamp collectors.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Let's hope for a colorful future
Study by AkzoNobel, owner of ICI paint, shows that people generally prefer neutral colors such as black, white and grey for interiors, during economic downturns, while more intense colors when they are more confident.
This should serves as no surprise, as economic downturn definitely spoils our mood. Who has the luxury and mood to design a more colorful interior in a downturn? Whereas in a upturn, there is more room, and maybe budget, for more imagination.
You may apply this when you walk into a company's office in future. It may tell you something about how the company views the economic outlook.
** Quote **
Link between colour trends and economy
Tags: Akzo Nobel colour trends economy
Written by Edge Malaysia
Friday, 31 July 2009 17:07
KUALA LUMPUR: A study by AkzoNobel, the world's largest paint and coatings company, on colour trends during economic changes, showed a co-relation between the state of the economy with colour trends.
Although regional preferences can have an impact, "colour trends have been fluctuating in waves over the last few decades as the economy ebbed and flowed," said Jeremy Rowe, AkzoNobel managing director for decorative paints, South East Asia & Pacific.
"During an economic downturn, neutral colours such as black, white and greys are favoured for interiors while more intense colours are used when people feel more confident," explains Rowe at a breakfast meeting with the Malaysian media on July 31.
He added that in Western Europe at the moment, sober whites and off-whites are the most popular while in the US, beige and grey are dominant.
Asia, he added is definitely more colourful with fresh colours such a yellows and pink and light blue preferred.
In the months ahead, Rowe said, "colours will be lighter in mood and more optimistic in feel" as the world emerges from the current economic downturn.
AkzoNobel acquired Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI) paints last year. It is the manufacturer of the Dulux brand of paints.
ICI Paints (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd managing director Goh Cheok Weng said the paints and coatings sector has shown improvement in Q2 indicating a return in consumer confidence.
The Amsterdam-based AkzoNobel posted revenue of 15.4 billion euros last year. It expects to maintain Asia's 20% contribution to its total sales up till 2012.
ICI Paints Malaysia also launched a month-long nationwide roadshow to raise awareness on the need for sustainable, environment-friendly products and its commitment to produce low odour, low volatile compound (VOC) green certified paints.
It is the first decoration company to introduce the full range of low odour, low VOC interior emulsion paints with Singapore's Green Label accreditation in Malaysia.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/146300-link-between-colour-trends-and-economy.html
This should serves as no surprise, as economic downturn definitely spoils our mood. Who has the luxury and mood to design a more colorful interior in a downturn? Whereas in a upturn, there is more room, and maybe budget, for more imagination.
You may apply this when you walk into a company's office in future. It may tell you something about how the company views the economic outlook.
** Quote **
Link between colour trends and economy
Tags: Akzo Nobel colour trends economy
Written by Edge Malaysia
Friday, 31 July 2009 17:07
KUALA LUMPUR: A study by AkzoNobel, the world's largest paint and coatings company, on colour trends during economic changes, showed a co-relation between the state of the economy with colour trends.
Although regional preferences can have an impact, "colour trends have been fluctuating in waves over the last few decades as the economy ebbed and flowed," said Jeremy Rowe, AkzoNobel managing director for decorative paints, South East Asia & Pacific.
"During an economic downturn, neutral colours such as black, white and greys are favoured for interiors while more intense colours are used when people feel more confident," explains Rowe at a breakfast meeting with the Malaysian media on July 31.
He added that in Western Europe at the moment, sober whites and off-whites are the most popular while in the US, beige and grey are dominant.
Asia, he added is definitely more colourful with fresh colours such a yellows and pink and light blue preferred.
In the months ahead, Rowe said, "colours will be lighter in mood and more optimistic in feel" as the world emerges from the current economic downturn.
AkzoNobel acquired Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI) paints last year. It is the manufacturer of the Dulux brand of paints.
ICI Paints (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd managing director Goh Cheok Weng said the paints and coatings sector has shown improvement in Q2 indicating a return in consumer confidence.
The Amsterdam-based AkzoNobel posted revenue of 15.4 billion euros last year. It expects to maintain Asia's 20% contribution to its total sales up till 2012.
ICI Paints Malaysia also launched a month-long nationwide roadshow to raise awareness on the need for sustainable, environment-friendly products and its commitment to produce low odour, low volatile compound (VOC) green certified paints.
It is the first decoration company to introduce the full range of low odour, low VOC interior emulsion paints with Singapore's Green Label accreditation in Malaysia.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/146300-link-between-colour-trends-and-economy.html
Friday, July 31, 2009
FSL - will there be storm ahead?
In my previous posting (http://mycroeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/07/fsl-whats-in-their-mind.html), I concluded that cutting the payout ratio will depress the unit price while do no good to the company.
Now let's look at what happen.
The general market sentiment since the announcement (21/Jul) has been on the uptrend. In fact, FSL tracks ST pretty well few days before the announcement, and even 4 days after that. Then on 25/Jul, we observed an expected drop upon XD. However, after that we see a clear decoupling, and it goes against the general trend.
This is interesting as it shows that the market need time to digest information, or in other words it is not 100% efficiency. Were the investors blinded by the immediate distribution?
Now the other shipping trust Rickmers is going to announce its results next week. If it can sustain its distribution, will it encourage investors to switch boat? If it cut further its distribution, will it damage further the sentiment on shipping trust? Will there be storm ahead?
Now let's look at what happen.
The general market sentiment since the announcement (21/Jul) has been on the uptrend. In fact, FSL tracks ST pretty well few days before the announcement, and even 4 days after that. Then on 25/Jul, we observed an expected drop upon XD. However, after that we see a clear decoupling, and it goes against the general trend.
This is interesting as it shows that the market need time to digest information, or in other words it is not 100% efficiency. Were the investors blinded by the immediate distribution?
Now the other shipping trust Rickmers is going to announce its results next week. If it can sustain its distribution, will it encourage investors to switch boat? If it cut further its distribution, will it damage further the sentiment on shipping trust? Will there be storm ahead?
Thursday, July 30, 2009
STMicro first customer for Globalfoundries
As I mentioned in my previous post (http://mycroeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/07/if-you-are-shareholders-of-chartered.html), Globalfoundries was to announce its first non-AMD customer. And the answer is ... STMicroelectronics.
Globalfoundries does not need to be successful to create harm to Chartered. Its sheer existence will bring the burdens described in previous posting.
Furthermore, Globalfoundries announced that they will produce STMicro product based on 40nm (lower better) Low Power technology in 2010, while Chartered is currently at 65nm. Looks like Chartered would be lagging behind the technology race.
# Quote - Globalfoundries Press Release 29/Jul/2009 #
SUNNYVALE, CA – July 29, 2009 – GLOBALFOUNDRIES today announced a strategic customer relationship with STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM). One of the world’s leading suppliers of semiconductor solutions, ST will partner with GLOBALFOUNDRIES to produce products based on 40nm Low Power (LP) bulk silicon technology. The 40nm LP process is ideal for the next generation of wireless applications, handheld devices, and consumer electronics, which require excellent performance and long battery life. First tape out and production of ST products by GLOBALFOUNDRIES is planned to start in 2010.
# Quote - Chartered Semicon Press Release 13/Jul/2009 #
SINGAPORE - July 13, 2009 - Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (Nasdaq: CHRT and SGX-ST: CHARTEREDSC), one of the world's top dedicated foundries, today announced the general availability of an enhanced version of its 65-nanometer (nm) low-power (LP) process, called 65nm LPe. The 65nm LPe process utilizes innovative leakage-reduction techniques to significantly improve system-on-chip (SoC) standby power consumption by up to 50 percent. The result is a lower-power process especially suited for battery-operated and cost-sensitive mobile applications that require active standby conditions, such as mobile handsets, multimedia players or personal internet devices. The process is also supported by a robust range of IP specifically optimized for the lower leakage capabilities.
Globalfoundries does not need to be successful to create harm to Chartered. Its sheer existence will bring the burdens described in previous posting.
Furthermore, Globalfoundries announced that they will produce STMicro product based on 40nm (lower better) Low Power technology in 2010, while Chartered is currently at 65nm. Looks like Chartered would be lagging behind the technology race.
# Quote - Globalfoundries Press Release 29/Jul/2009 #
SUNNYVALE, CA – July 29, 2009 – GLOBALFOUNDRIES today announced a strategic customer relationship with STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM). One of the world’s leading suppliers of semiconductor solutions, ST will partner with GLOBALFOUNDRIES to produce products based on 40nm Low Power (LP) bulk silicon technology. The 40nm LP process is ideal for the next generation of wireless applications, handheld devices, and consumer electronics, which require excellent performance and long battery life. First tape out and production of ST products by GLOBALFOUNDRIES is planned to start in 2010.
# Quote - Chartered Semicon Press Release 13/Jul/2009 #
SINGAPORE - July 13, 2009 - Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (Nasdaq: CHRT and SGX-ST: CHARTEREDSC), one of the world's top dedicated foundries, today announced the general availability of an enhanced version of its 65-nanometer (nm) low-power (LP) process, called 65nm LPe. The 65nm LPe process utilizes innovative leakage-reduction techniques to significantly improve system-on-chip (SoC) standby power consumption by up to 50 percent. The result is a lower-power process especially suited for battery-operated and cost-sensitive mobile applications that require active standby conditions, such as mobile handsets, multimedia players or personal internet devices. The process is also supported by a robust range of IP specifically optimized for the lower leakage capabilities.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Interest of CFO
In this severe downturn, most of us would be happy to just keep a job. But not for CFO or Financial Controller.
In the 3 months from May-Jul 2009, a total of 27 of them left the jobs. This is equivalent to 9 per month.
Various reasons are given.
If you look at the pareto, almost half of them left the jobs to pursue other interests or commitment and personal reasons. Only 30% is to pursue better career opportunities.
I would think that CFO and FC are numerical, logical and probably boring people. But this results show that they do have a lot of 'interests' and 'commitments' to pursue. As to what really interests, or de-interests them, only they have the answer.
In the 3 months from May-Jul 2009, a total of 27 of them left the jobs. This is equivalent to 9 per month.
Various reasons are given.
If you look at the pareto, almost half of them left the jobs to pursue other interests or commitment and personal reasons. Only 30% is to pursue better career opportunities.
I would think that CFO and FC are numerical, logical and probably boring people. But this results show that they do have a lot of 'interests' and 'commitments' to pursue. As to what really interests, or de-interests them, only they have the answer.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Subsidy, sub and silly method?
Digitimes (28 July, 2009) reported that China Karaoke operators are buying LCD TV subsidy rights from farmers. To the farmers, LCD TV probably is not a necessity, and even with the subsidy, they still need to fork out a handsome sum of money. Therefore, trading the rights for some cash seems to be a good option. In other words, the benefit of the subsidy has been shared by the Karaoke operators and the farmers. Fair? Well, that's not the government intention. The government hopes to see improvement in the farmers' living standard. However, that's how market works, when 2 parties see different values on the item, in this case the subsidy, they can trade.
Closer to us, we also see recently a few employers were charged for hiring phantom employees to enjoy job credits from government. The intent of job credit, according to the government, is to save jobs by lowering cost of doing business here. Job credit is also a form of subsidy. In general, from economics point of view, wage subsidy is not good, as it may lead to various problems, including sustainability, effectiveness, and exploitation concerns. As job credit is a short-term measure, sustainability is not an issue. Effectiveness is a question mark. Will companies agree to cough out $100 in order to get back $12? We will probably never know the real answer, but that may not be important after all. In a deep crisis, confidence and hope have its value. Finally, we can see that exploitation does happen. The ones caught represent probably the tip of iceberg.
Closer to us, we also see recently a few employers were charged for hiring phantom employees to enjoy job credits from government. The intent of job credit, according to the government, is to save jobs by lowering cost of doing business here. Job credit is also a form of subsidy. In general, from economics point of view, wage subsidy is not good, as it may lead to various problems, including sustainability, effectiveness, and exploitation concerns. As job credit is a short-term measure, sustainability is not an issue. Effectiveness is a question mark. Will companies agree to cough out $100 in order to get back $12? We will probably never know the real answer, but that may not be important after all. In a deep crisis, confidence and hope have its value. Finally, we can see that exploitation does happen. The ones caught represent probably the tip of iceberg.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Dell - Lawsuit risk could propogate along the supply chain
According to report, Dell has mispriced some products on its online shop, and refused to honor it. The consumers in return sued it, and frozen its bank account temporary, thus affecting in turn affecting Dell's payment to its suppliers.
This is quite surprising, considering that the amount involved is pretty small. In Tech space, many companies are involved in multiple lawsuits, particularly in IP litigations. If the bank accounts could be frozen easily, it could mean that many Tech companies at the downstream of suppliers could be affected negatively.
Dell account frozen over pricing mishaps
Publication Date：07/24/2009
Source： China Times
U.S. Computer giant Dell Inc. reportedly faces a charge of price fraud with its Citibank account frozen temporarily by court order, sources said.
Dell’s online shopping Web site in early July mislabeled Latitude E4300 laptops and other products at very low prices. As a result, 26,000 consumers made orders via the Internet within a week, but Dell only agreed to compensate laptop buyers with coupons for NT$20,000(US$610) each, and purchasers of other products with coupons for NT$1,000 each.
This response dismayed several big consumers, who reportedly ordered computers and monitors worth a couple of million NT dollars at the mislabeled prices, and transmitted money to Dell’s bank account. They sued Dell for price fraud because the company would not fill the orders. The Chungli Criminal Police Bureau accepted the case and submitted it to the court, which then ordered a freeze on Dell’s Citibank account in Taiwan.
Compal Electronics Co. Ltd and Foxconn Technology Group, two major product suppliers for Dell, reportedly were affected financially by the account-blocking.
According to a local supplier for Dell, only a small part of Dell’s cash flow in its Taiwan account comes from online orders. Most of the capital is remitted by company headquarters to pay panel providers. Local provider companies, worried that they would not receive payment, reportedly called Premier Liu Chao-shiuan for help after they learned of the account-freezing.
Some argued that a consumer dispute should not be exaggerated into an online fraud case, especially when online orders for Dell products in Taiwan are usually at a very low volume.
Francis Huan, public relations manager of Dell Asia Pacific and Japan, would not comment on the account-freezing incident, but stressed “it has all passed now.” Dell’s operations in Taiwan have returned to normal, although Huan believes that “no ordinary consumer would place such a large order.”
Dell will refund money to all online purchasers who have already made payments, Huan said. But as many of them use pseudonyms to order and only leave cell phone numbers, it will take some time before all refunds can be made. (TYH-THN)
This is quite surprising, considering that the amount involved is pretty small. In Tech space, many companies are involved in multiple lawsuits, particularly in IP litigations. If the bank accounts could be frozen easily, it could mean that many Tech companies at the downstream of suppliers could be affected negatively.
Dell account frozen over pricing mishaps
Publication Date：07/24/2009
Source： China Times
U.S. Computer giant Dell Inc. reportedly faces a charge of price fraud with its Citibank account frozen temporarily by court order, sources said.
Dell’s online shopping Web site in early July mislabeled Latitude E4300 laptops and other products at very low prices. As a result, 26,000 consumers made orders via the Internet within a week, but Dell only agreed to compensate laptop buyers with coupons for NT$20,000(US$610) each, and purchasers of other products with coupons for NT$1,000 each.
This response dismayed several big consumers, who reportedly ordered computers and monitors worth a couple of million NT dollars at the mislabeled prices, and transmitted money to Dell’s bank account. They sued Dell for price fraud because the company would not fill the orders. The Chungli Criminal Police Bureau accepted the case and submitted it to the court, which then ordered a freeze on Dell’s Citibank account in Taiwan.
Compal Electronics Co. Ltd and Foxconn Technology Group, two major product suppliers for Dell, reportedly were affected financially by the account-blocking.
According to a local supplier for Dell, only a small part of Dell’s cash flow in its Taiwan account comes from online orders. Most of the capital is remitted by company headquarters to pay panel providers. Local provider companies, worried that they would not receive payment, reportedly called Premier Liu Chao-shiuan for help after they learned of the account-freezing.
Some argued that a consumer dispute should not be exaggerated into an online fraud case, especially when online orders for Dell products in Taiwan are usually at a very low volume.
Francis Huan, public relations manager of Dell Asia Pacific and Japan, would not comment on the account-freezing incident, but stressed “it has all passed now.” Dell’s operations in Taiwan have returned to normal, although Huan believes that “no ordinary consumer would place such a large order.”
Dell will refund money to all online purchasers who have already made payments, Huan said. But as many of them use pseudonyms to order and only leave cell phone numbers, it will take some time before all refunds can be made. (TYH-THN)
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